Primera Division Uruguay
Sunday, 01 November 2026, 13:00 (Europe/Warsaw)
Parque Abraham Paladino
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting – AI prediction
PRO
Progreso
VS
DEF
Defensor Sporting
0 : 2
✓ Hit
AI Confidence
Away win
46%
1
28%
X
26%
2
46%
AI Analysis
The simulation overrates the hosts relative to the market, so I adjust toward the visitors. I lower the draw in line with the historical bias of overrating draws and the lower ELO assessment. The visitors' low form (33%) is a risk factor, hence moderate confidence.
Key Factors
Defensor's desperation in the fight for survival (15th place, -9 goal difference) may translate into higher intensity and more draws against favorites
The visitors' very low form (33%, falling) contrasts with the 7-day rest of both teams
Historical bias: overrating draws by 6.8% forces a more conservative draw_prob
Form (last 5)
Progreso
W
W
L
W
L
Defensor Sporting
D
L
W
L
D
Head to Head (1)
27.04.2026
Defensor Sporting – Progreso
1:0
AI predictions are for entertainment and educational purposes only and do not guarantee accuracy. Decisions based on them are at the user’s own risk.