Peñarol vs Montevideo Wanderers – AI prediction

Peñarol has the advantage of playing at home, a higher league position and a better goal difference, which is confirmed by the simulation (44.7% win probability). The visitors are in worse form (two consecutive losses) and have a negative goal difference. Historical bias shows underestimation of home teams, so I slightly increase their chance, but a draw remains realistic given the close ELO ratings.