Universidad Católica – Audax Italiano: AI prediction & pick

Monte Carlo simulation and bookmaker odds indicate a balanced match with a slight edge for the hosts (about 40% vs 30-33%). The hosts have home advantage and higher xG, but are fatigued (3 days rest) and in poor form, while the visitors are fresher and in better short-term form. Historical bias shows overestimation of draws, so I lower draw_prob to 27% and slightly raise away chances to 33%.