Cienciano del Cusco – Atlético Grau: AI prediction & pick

The hosts have a clear advantage in xG and ELO, and bookmaker odds still underestimate their chances (value bet +36.2%). However, fatigue (3 days rest) and declining form lower their chances, so I adjust the probability from 50.7% to 48%. I reduce the draw from 26.7% to 24% due to the model's historical bias, and raise the away team to 28% due to their longer rest.