Primera Division Paraguay
Sunday, 25 October 2026, 22:30 (Europe/Warsaw)
Defensores del Chaco
Sportivo San Lorenzo – Cerro Porteño: AI prediction & pick
SPO
Sportivo San Lorenzo
VS
CER
Cerro Porteño
1 : 3
✓ Hit
AI Confidence
Away win
52%
1
24%
X
24%
2
52%
AI Analysis
Cerro Porteño has a clear advantage: higher ELO, better goal difference, 7th place and two wins in H2H. Sportivo San Lorenzo is in the relegation zone with the worst defense in the league, and the Monte Carlo simulation gives the visitors a 52.1% chance. Bookmaker odds seem to underestimate the away side, so I keep their probability high while slightly lowering the draw according to historical bias.
Key Factors
Cerro Porteño's H2H advantage (2 wins in 2 matches)
Sportivo San Lorenzo in relegation zone with worst defense (18 goals conceded)
Higher ELO and positive goal difference for the visitors
Bookmaker odds significantly diverge from simulation (>10pp difference for away win)
Form (last 5)
Sportivo San Lorenzo
L
L
L
D
W
Cerro Porteño
D
W
L
L
W
Head to Head (2)
28.03.2026
Cerro Porteño – Sportivo San Lorenzo
2:0
27.01.2026
Sportivo San Lorenzo – Cerro Porteño
2:4
AI predictions are for entertainment and educational purposes only. They do not guarantee winnings or profits. Decisions based on them are at the user's own risk.