Sarmiento (Junín) vs Independiente Rivadavia – AI prediction

The away team is in much better form (4 wins in last 5 matches) and has higher motivation (title race). Monte Carlo simulation gives them 46.3% chance, and after adjusting for the home team's poor form and low condition, the probability increases to 51%. The most likely score is 1:2, which is consistent with the top 5 simulation results.