Although the Monte Carlo simulation indicates a close match, data on form, ELO rating, and head-to-head strongly favor Oklahoma City Thunder. The visitors are in excellent form, while the hosts have issues against Thunder. Betting odds also suggest an away advantage, confirming the probability adjustment.
Key Factors
Dominance of Oklahoma City Thunder in recent direct matches (2 wins against Suns)
Significantly higher ELO rating of the visitors (2016 vs 1480)
Excellent form of the visitors (WWWWL) vs mixed form of the hosts (LWLWL)
Form (last 5)
Phoenix Suns
L
W
L
W
L
Oklahoma City Thunder
W
W
W
W
L
Head to Head (5)
19.04.2026Oklahoma City Thunder – Phoenix Suns117:83
12.02.2026Phoenix Suns – Oklahoma City Thunder109:136
05.01.2026Phoenix Suns – Oklahoma City Thunder108:105
11.12.2025Oklahoma City Thunder – Phoenix Suns138:89
29.11.2025Oklahoma City Thunder – Phoenix Suns123:119
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