Lommel SK vs KAA Gent – AI prediction

KAA Gent clearly has better form (4 wins in 5 matches, goal difference 15:3) and a higher average xG, which justifies the advantage. The simulation gives the visitors 41.4%, but market quotations (30% for the visitors) and balanced ELO suggest that the advantage is not that large. I take into account the historical tendency to overestimate draws, but the market and simulation indicate a high draw probability, so I keep draw_prob at 30%. Ultimately, I favor a win for the visitors, but with moderate confidence.