Llaneros FC – Atlético Junior: AI prediction & pick

The match is very balanced: ELO and xG are close, and both teams have low scoring efficiency. The visitors have an advantage in fitness and rest, slightly increasing their chances, but the simulation and odds point to a high probability of a draw. I account for the historical bias of overestimating draws by lowering draw_prob relative to the simulation, but keep it as the highest outcome.