FC Cajamarca – UTC: AI prediction & pick

A match between the two weakest teams in the Peruvian league — both in the relegation zone, both without a win in their last 5 games. The Monte Carlo simulation gives the hosts 42.3%, but I lower it due to only 2 days of rest (the visitors have 5). I raise the draw to 34% given both teams' relegation_battle motivation and the model's historical bias (overestimating draws), so I don't raise it too much. The most likely score is 1:1 — the most frequent result in the simulation (14.95%).