Connecticut Sun – New York Liberty: AI prediction & pick

Despite the balanced Monte Carlo simulation, data on form, ELO rating, and head-to-head clearly favor New York Liberty. The hosts are in poor form (4 losses in last 5 games), while the visitors have higher offensive potential and a better league position. Bookmaker odds (2.7 away) confirm the visitors' advantage. I adjusted away probability up by 10pp, accounting for historical bias underestimating home teams.