Brasileirão Série A
Sunday, 16 August 2026, 14:00 (Europe/Warsaw)
Arena Condá
Chapecoense – Bahia: AI prediction & pick
CHA
Chapecoense
VS
BAH
Bahia
AI Confidence
Away win
47%
1
24%
X
29%
2
47%
AI Analysis
Bahia is the clear favorite based on Monte Carlo simulation (48.6% win), better form (DDDWW vs DDLLL), higher xG (1.444 vs 0.879), and a 2:0 win in the last head-to-head. Chapecoense has very poor condition (27%) and a goal difference of 6:19, indicating defensive and offensive issues. Although bookmaker odds give the visitors lower chances (30%), model data and form favor a Bahia win, but due to my historical bias towards home teams, I slightly increase their chances.
Key Factors
Bahia won the last head-to-head 2:0
Chapecoense has the worst form in the league (4 points in 9 matches)
Bahia's xG (1.444) significantly higher than Chapecoense's (0.879)
Form (last 5)
Chapecoense
D
D
L
L
L
Bahia
D
D
D
W
W
Head to Head (1)
17.07.2026
Bahia – Chapecoense
2:0
AI predictions are for entertainment and educational purposes only. They do not guarantee winnings or profits. Decisions based on them are at the user's own risk.