Primeira Liga
Sunday, 03 May 2026, 14:30 (Europe/Warsaw)
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Casa Pia – Tondela: AI prediction & pick
CAS
Casa Pia
VS
TON
Tondela
0 : 1
✗ Miss
AI Confidence
Casa Pia or draw
68%
1
43%
X
29%
2
28%
AI Analysis
The Monte Carlo simulation indicates a slight advantage for the hosts (43.4% vs 28.4% for the visitors), which is consistent with the odds and the poor form of both teams. The hosts have a better ELO rating and more rest days, which could tip the scales in their favor in a balanced match. The most likely score is 1-0 (12.25% in the simulation).
Key Factors
Very poor form of both teams (hosts 0 wins in 5 matches, visitors 1 draw and 4 losses)
Home advantage in ELO (1475 vs 1385) and more rest days (5 vs 3)
Bookmaker odds and Monte Carlo simulation are close, no clear favorite
Form (last 5)
Casa Pia
L
L
D
L
D
Tondela
D
L
L
D
L
Head to Head (1)
21.12.2025
Tondela – Casa Pia
1:2
AI predictions are for entertainment and educational purposes only. They do not guarantee winnings or profits. Decisions based on them are at the user's own risk.