Aston Villa has a clear advantage in form, ELO, and xG, which is confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation. Fulham may score, but should not threaten the win.
Key Factors
Significant ELO advantage (1751 vs 1476) and higher home xG (1.935 vs 1.103)
Excellent Aston Villa form (4 wins and a draw in 5 matches) vs mixed Fulham form
Historical model bias: underestimating home wins and overestimating draws
Form (last 5)
Aston Villa
W
W
W
W
D
Fulham
W
W
L
W
D
Head to Head (2)
25.04.2026Fulham – Aston Villa1:0
28.09.2025Aston Villa – Fulham3:1
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