Primeira Liga
Sunday, 01 November 2026, 15:30 (Europe/Warsaw)
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca vs C.D. Nacional – AI prediction
ARO
Arouca
VS
C.D
C.D. Nacional
1 : 0
✓ Hit
AI Confidence
Home win
55%
1
55%
X
23%
2
23%
AI Analysis
Arouca has clearly better form (4 wins and a draw in 5 matches), higher ELO and xG, and a favorable H2H. The Monte Carlo simulation gives the hosts 52.4%, and market quotations suggest Arouca is undervalued. The downward correction of the draw results from the historical overestimation of draws, while the slight increase in the hosts' chances comes from their quality advantage and European motivation.
Key Factors
Significant form advantage for the hosts (WWWWD vs WLWLL)
Higher xG and ELO for Arouca and a favorable H2H (2-0)
European motivation for the hosts vs relegation motivation for the visitors — possible higher pressing from the visitors, but greater quality from Arouca
Form (last 5)
Arouca
W
W
W
W
W
C.D. Nacional
W
L
W
L
L
Head to Head (2)
21.02.2026
Arouca – C.D. Nacional
3:0
20.09.2025
C.D. Nacional – Arouca
1:2
AI predictions are for entertainment and educational purposes only and do not guarantee accuracy. Decisions based on them are at the user’s own risk.